被稱為“史上最嚴乳粉新政”的配方注冊制將于2018年1月1日正式實施。根據《嬰幼兒配方乳粉產品配方注冊管理辦法》規定，嬰幼兒配方奶粉的產品配方必須通過相關部門的注冊后才能銷售。同時，根據財政部、商務部等11個部門共同公布的《跨境電子商務零售進口商品清單》中有關商品備注的說明，從2018年1月1日起，在中國銷售的嬰幼兒配方乳粉，包括通過跨境電子商務零售進口的嬰幼兒配方乳粉，也必須獲得產品配方注冊證書。
The new infant formula milk powder registration rules, as“the strictest regulation on infant formula milk powder ever”, will come into force on 1 January, 2018. As stipulated in Administrative Measures on Product Formula Registration of Infant Formula Milk Powder released by China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA), the product formula of infant milk powder must be registered by CFDA agency before being sold in China’s market. The List of Cross-Border E-Commerce Retail Imports co-released by 11 PRC government departments, including Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, also requires that from 1 January, 2018, all the infant formula milk powder products, including those imported through cross-border e-commerce from overseas retailers, have to be issued the certificate for product formula milk powder registration before being sold in China.
這一新政的實施， 被業內外普遍稱贊為開啟了中國嬰幼兒配方奶粉市場發展的新時代。
The implementation of this new policy is widely acclaimed that it will herald a new era of China’s infant formula milk powder market.
更確切地來說，從目前的市場輿情反應中可以得知，新政的實施將對國內奶粉品牌提供良好的市場機遇。在中國奶粉消費者心中，普遍對國內奶粉品牌缺乏信心，而對國外奶粉品牌貼上“安全、高質”的標簽，而國外的奶粉賣到中國，價格都會翻一番，例如：在英國倫敦一罐愛他美嬰幼兒奶粉售價基本在10.5~12.99英鎊，折合人民幣約92~114元，而在國內這一價格將變為220~250元。但其實國內的奶粉企業，歷經種種“事件”之后，已經提升了奶粉全產業鏈制造工藝和質量管控標準，目前中國奶粉質量標準已經全面超過了國際標準，國內外配方奶粉也越來越趨于同質化，奶源差異也不大，而且相比國外小家庭作坊式的牧場，國內牧場更加標準化和規?；?。
From the current reaction and public comments in China’s market, the new policy will provide good opportunities for Chinese milk powder manufacturers. Many Chinese consumers seem to show a pitiful lack of confidence in local milk powder brands, but label the foreign brands as “safe with high quality”. When exported to China, those overseas milk powder products’ prices will be doubled, e.g. a box of Aptamil milk powder sold in London is priced at ?10.5-12.99 (￥92-114 RMB yuan), but when exported to China, its price is raised to ￥220-225 RMB yuan. In fact, after a series of baby milk powder“incidents”in China, the domestic milk powder manufacturers have improved their quality standards, which has reached or even surpassed the international standards. Consequently, the gap of the formula and source between local and overseas milk powder products has further narrowed down. And pastures in China are even more standardized and larger in scale compared to those oversea ones.
對于消費者來說，問題只有一點：信心的恢復速度，遠比質量安全提升的速度要慢得多。
But there is still one concern for the Chinese consumers: their confidence in Chinese milk powder products recovers much more slowly than the improvement of the products’ quality and safety.
這次“史上最嚴奶粉新政”的實施，將第一次以國家層面出臺的新制度的方式，將清走一大批過多的奶粉品牌和配方，其中不乏只靠分裝，沒有高標準工廠的洋品牌，揭示不少洋奶粉“高價不高質”的現實。申萬宏源知名乳業分析師呂昌預計，洋奶粉優勢地位不保，國產奶粉將全面復蘇，注冊制將清理掉絕大部分二三線奶粉和中小國產奶粉，從而將騰出至少300億元的新市場空間。
The implementation of “the strictest regulation on infant formula milk powder ever”will, at the level of national policy for the first time, clean up a huge number of milk powder brands and formula , including those so-called foreign products which are packaged in China and manufactured from factories without high standards. Those oversea brands with high price and low quality will be brought to light. Lv Chang, a renowned analyst in diary industry from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, predicts that oversea milk powder brands will soon lose their dominance in the market and Chinese brands will embrace an overall re-invigoration. Also, most small and medium milk powder brands will be eliminated from the market by the new policy, making room for a market worth over 30 billion yuan.
結合此次新政實施背景，【ECdataway數據威】對目前奶粉電商市場進行了研究，觀察電商數據是否能佐證行業觀點，并前瞻奶粉市場的未來。
Against the background of the new policy implementation, ECdataway conducts a research on the current situation of online milk powder market, with am aim to find out whether the e-commerce data can strengthen the above view about the industry and herald its future development.
首先，讓我們來了解一下2017年4季度奶粉市場各品牌的電商市場占有率（依據銷售額），與今年1季度相比，情況已經有所不同了：
Firstly, let’s take a look at the online market share of milk powder brands in 2017 Q4, which has changed a lot since Q1.
注1：帶 * 為中國國產品牌
注2：2017年4季度為10月，11月至今
注3：平臺覆蓋：天貓（包含天貓國際、天貓西選、天貓超市）
PS:
1. Brands with * are from China.
2. Due to the fact that 2017 Q4 is not over yet, the data covers Oct to present.
3. The data covers Tmall (including Tmall.HK, Tmall Global Direct-sale and Tmall Supermarket).
從上表中，我們可以發現，奶粉市場的品牌集中度有進一步提升的趨勢，TOP20品牌的市場占有率，已經從年初一季度的86.5%，上升到91.6%，其中洋品牌“愛他美”提升2.9%，市場占有率已經達到16.1%之強，國產品牌“貝因美”市場占有率第二，占12.4%，比一季度大幅提升6.2%百分點。排名前三的品牌，市場份額都是進一步提高，另有11個品牌市場占有率有不等減少，顯示出強者恒強的局面。
It can be found out that the market is more centralized to the top brands. The market share of the Top 20 brands has grown from 86.5% in Q1 to 91.6% in Q4. As the No.1 brand, Aptamil’s market share has reached 16.1%, increasing 2.9% compared to Q1. And Beingmate, a local brand, has risen to the second place, with a market share of 12.4% in Q4, increasing 6.2% since Q1. The Top 3 brands all expand their market share. But there are still 11 brands have shrank in terms of market share. The whole market shows the trend that “the strong get stronger”.
進一步從市場占有率的趨勢來進行分析，【ECdataway數據威】在TOP20品牌中，分洋奶粉和國產品牌奶粉，觀察兩者在2017年以來，市場占有率的走勢：
Then, ECdataway delves into the trend of market share of local and overseas milk powder brands since 2017.
注：平臺覆蓋：天貓（包含天貓國際、天貓超市、天貓西選）
PS: The data covers Tmall (including Tmall.HK ,Tmall Global Direct-sale and Tmall Supermarket).
上圖中，可以發現，TOP20品牌奶粉中，洋奶粉基本維持在65~69%的市場份額，而國產奶粉維持在20~22%的市場份額，在618狂歡節期間，是洋奶粉的表現比較突出，市場占有率沖高到73.1%，而國產奶粉通過雙11活動在11月份市場份額提升到24.4%。而在最近三個月中，洋奶粉的市場份額已經連續3個月小幅下滑，從目前的數據來看，一定程度上，與分析師看好國產奶粉的未來預期相符合，但這樣的趨勢是否會隨著2018年新政實施的到來，進一步延續或加劇，的確有待進一步跟蹤觀察。
The statistics show that the among the Top 20 brands, foreign brands occupies 65-67% market share while the local ones only 20-22% market share. During the June 18th online shopping carnival, foreign brands’ market share skyrocketed to 73.1%. While the local brands’ market share rose to 24.4% in November with the help of Double 11 shopping festival. But the situation is changing. The market share of foreign brands has been decreasing for 3 consecutive months since September, which in a sense testify the prediction upon the outlook of the local milk powder industry. Will the new policy maintain the status quo or intensify this trend in 2018? We still need to wait and see.
